Saturday, April 27, 2013

Rotoworld: Breaking down the first round picks

1. Chiefs - OT Eric Fisher (Central Michigan)
Fisher (6-foot-7 1/4, 306) made 34 career starts for the Chippewas, including 28 at left tackle. With superior size, length (34 1/2" arms), and athleticism to Luke Joeckel, the Chiefs determined Fisher -- despite his smaller-school background -- was this year's premier left tackle prospect. At the Combine, Fisher ran 5.05 with a 1.70 ten-yard split, pumped 27 reps on the bench, and scored 23 on the Wonderlic. He'll protect Alex Smith's blindside as a rookie. Look for Branden Albert to be traded Friday, probably to the Dolphins.

2. Jaguars - OT Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M)
The Jags stuck to their board despite the presence of 2009 first-rounder Eugene Monroe at left tackle. With Monroe going into the final year of his contract, Joeckel will almost certainly man right tackle as a rookie. Joeckel (6-foot-6, 306) started all 37 games of his college career at left tackle, protecting Heisman winner Johnny Manziel's blindside as a junior before turning pro. Joeckel permitted two sacks and a dozen hurries in 2012, and was flagged for four penalties. At the Combine, Joeckel measured in with vines for arms (34 1/4") and massive 10 1/8-inch hands, which will pay dividends when shielding Blaine Gabbert (?) from the J.J. Watts of the world.

3. Dolphins - LB Dion Jordan (Oregon)
The Dolphins' all-in offseason continues. Jordan (6-foot-6 1/4, 248) was a versatile "Joker" in Chip Kelly's Ducks defenses, playing end and linebacker and covering slot receivers on passing downs. He tallied 29 career tackles for loss, 14.5 sacks, and four forced fumbles. Jones ran like a receiver at the Combine, clearing forty yards in 4.6-flat with a 1.57 ten-yard split and 10-foot-2 broad jump. He's a highly explosive, fluid athlete whom Rotoworld draft guru Josh Norris likens to former five-time Pro Bowler Julian Peterson. Jordan has also drawn comparisons to another former Miami sack artist, Jason Taylor. Look for the Dolphins to complete the trade for Chiefs LT Branden Albert Friday.

4. Eagles - OT Lane Johnson (Oklahoma)
Johnson (6-foot-6, 303) has longer arms (35 1/4") than Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher, and beat both in the forty (4.72), ten-yard split (1.61), and vertical (34") at the Combine, in addition to bench reps (28). Also flashing a mean streak on the field, Johnson is short only on experience. He started 23 games for the Sooners, 12 as a junior right tackle and 11 as a senior on Landry Jones' blind side after playing tight end and defensive end as a sophomore. Johnson allowed two sacks and nine QB knockdowns last year. Johnson arguably possesses more upside than any lineman in this draft. He'll slide in on Michael Vick's blindside in Philly, leaving Jason Peters at left tackle and kicking Todd Herremans inside to guard. Johnson is an absolute perfect fit for Chip Kelly's uptempo offense.?

5. Lions - DE Ezekiel Ansah (BYU)
Ansah (6-foot-5 1/4, 271) exploded onto the national scene as a senior with 62 tackles -- 13 for a loss -- and 4.5 sacks at outside 'backer in BYU's 3-4. His stock soared in the Senior Bowl game, which Ansah single-handedly took over with 3.5 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, and a forced fumble. Ansah has freak length (35 1/8-inch arms) and a 4.63 forty time. His 1.56 ten-yard split in Indy was second fastest among D-Linemen behind only Keke Mingo (1.55), who's 30 pounds lighter. With just three years of football experience, Ansah offers immense upside as a pass rusher and edge presence. With only Willie Young, Ronnell Lewis, and Jason Jones on the roster at defensive end, Ansah should see the field early. He is already a stout run defender, and once Ansah learns to create space on his own, watch out. His closing speed is excellent for the Lions' wide alignment.

6. Browns - DE Barkevious Mingo (LSU)
Mingo (6-foot-4, 241) tormented the SEC to the tune of 15 tackles for loss and eight sacks as a sophomore before his production dipped to 8.5 TFLs and 4.5 sacks last year. LSU coaches asked Mingo to work more in containment, but he failed to finish plays and must learn to play with better leverage. Still a highly explosive edge presence with big upside, Mingo is relentless with rare speed and length (33 3/4" arms). At the Combine, he ranked first among D-Linemen in the ten-yard split (1.55) and broad jump (10-foot-8), as well as second in the forty (4.58) and vertical (37"). Mingo will convert to outside linebacker in Cleveland's 3-4, where he'll be a natural fit. Jabaal Sheard may want to start packing his bags.

7. Cardinals - OG Jonathan Cooper (UNC)
Cooper is the first guard to go in the top-ten since the Saints selected Colorado's Chris Naeole at No. 10 in 1997. RG Adam Snyder is likely now on the outs in Arizona. Cooper (6-foot-2 1/8, 311) made 48 starts for the Heels, earning the Jacobs Trophy as the ACC's top lineman as a senior. He played the 2012 season in the 280-pound range per his coaches' request, but has since bulked up to his natural weight. The most athletically gifted interior lineman in this class, Cooper was charged with zero sacks allowed and a single hurry as senior. Also very smart (34 Wonderlic score), Cooper could play center in a pinch.

8. Rams - WR Tavon Austin (WVU)
Desperate to surround Sam Bradford with playmakers, the Rams pay a pretty penny to get the premier skill player in the entire draft. Austin (5-foot-8 1/2, 174) caught 215 balls for 2,475 yards (11.5 YPR) and 20 touchdowns over his final two college seasons, also rushing 88 times for 825 yards (9.4 YPC) and four more scores. He scored five career return touchdowns, four on kickoffs and one on a punt. Austin ran 4.34 in Indy with a 10-foot broad jump and 4.01 short shuttle, the second fastest of all receivers. Although not quite as physical as Percy Harvin, Austin possesses similar versatility, elusiveness, and explosive burst. Pencil him as a four-down game-changer that should lead the Rams in targets as a rookie.

9. Jets - DB Dee Milliner (Alabama)
Milliner (5-foot-11 7/8, 201) was a unanimous first-team All American in 2012 after serving as the Crimson Tide's 2011 nickel back behind DeQuan Menzie and Dre Kirkpatrick. Milliner finished his career with six interceptions across 30 starts. He ran 4.37 at the Combine with a 10-foot-2 broad jump and 36-inch vertical. Milliner doesn't necessarily project as a flashy or shutdown NFL corner, but is thickly built and versatile with plus skills for both zone and bump-and-run coverage. Milliner is doubtful to be ready for training camp due to shoulder surgery, and he has undergone five surgeries in his football career. He'll be asked to fill Darrelle Revis' giant shoes opposite Antonio Cromartie. 2010 first-rounder Kyle Wilson will handle nickel duties.

10. Titans - G Chance Warmack (Alabama)
Warmack (6-foot-2, 317) made 40 starts for the Tide, all at left guard. He was a unanimous first-team All-American in 2012, blocking out the sun in the run game. Warmack had more trouble in pass pro, surrendering two sacks of quarterback A.J. McCarron as a senior. An average athlete, Warmack ran 5.49 at the Combine with a 1.83 ten-yard split. A brute power player, Warmack figures to be an instant impact drive blocker but may struggle initially in the passing game. The Titans brought in Andy Levitre during free agency, but Warmack solidifies the right guard spot due to his mauling style.

11. Chargers - OT D.J. Fluker (Alabama)

Fluker (6-foot-4 5/8, 339) was a 35-game starter for the Crimson Tide, making all of them at right tackle. Although Fluker possesses vine-like 36 3/4-inch arms, he's not suited to block on an island and slow feet will keep him on the right side or perhaps even kick Fluker inside to guard. Fluker ran a 5.31 forty with a 1.81 ten-yard split in Indianapolis. As a senior, he allowed 5.5 sacks and 15.5 hurries of quarterback A.J. McCarron. San Diego is still reeling on the offensive line. We're not sure their pass protection got any better with this pick.

12. Raiders - DB D.J. Hayden (Houston)
This is one of two picks the Raiders received from the Dolphins for trading back from No. 3. They used it to get their man, who fills a massive need. Of course, the Raiders have massive needs at essentially every spot on the field. One of the draft's true "risers," Hayden (5-foot-11, 191) earned first-team All-CUSA honors as a senior despite being limited to nine games by a torn heart cavity suffered in a fluke practice collision. He was medically cleared this offseason, and buoyed by phenomenal tape. Rated the draft's No. 1 corner by Mike Mayock, Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar, Hayden is blessed with exceptionally quick and sudden feet, plays aggressively on the ball and has extensive experience as a "matchup" cover man, shadowing No. 1 receivers. Also a takeaway specialist, Hayden racked up six picks, six forced fumbles and 11 tackles for loss across 22 college starts.

13. Jets - DT Sheldon Richardson (Missouri)
Richardson is a high-upside prospect, but it's a head-scratcher. In dire need of offensive weapons and an edge rusher, the Jets go for a three-technique tackle. Richardson (6-foot-2 1/2, 294) is an explosive up-field pass rusher with tremendous suddenness off the ball. Perhaps the most athletic interior defensive lineman in the draft, Richardson even dropped into coverage at times for the Tigers. Richardson profiles as a suspect run defender, but could threaten for 5-7 sacks as a rookie. In 24 games at Mizzou, he reeled off 18.5 tackles for loss, six sacks, and four forced fumbles. He ran 5.02 at the Combine with a 1.77 ten-yard split and did 30 reps on the bench. It's an odd fit on paper for the Jets.

14. Panthers - DL Star Lotulelei (Utah)
Lotulelei (6-foot-3, 311) played all over the Utes' line, but was primarily a run defender. He's generated optimistic comparisons to Haloti Ngata for his strength and power at the point of attack. Lotulelei drew consistent double teams in the Pac 12 yet still managed 22.5 career tackles for loss, seven sacks, and four forced fumbles. A heart-efficiency scare at the Combine is no longer a concern. At his March 20 Pro Day, Lotulelei pumped 38 bench reps, ran 5.15 in the forty, and performed a 30-inch vertical leap. The concern among some NFL personnel men is Lotulelei will not be able to rush the quarterback in the pros. Defensive tackle has been a glaring hole in Carolina's defense for years now. The Panthers will pair him up with Dwan Edwards, who amassed six sacks last season, in the middle in an effort to shore up one of the league's weaker run defenses.

15. Saints - DB Kenny Vaccaro (Texas)
Vaccaro (6-foot, 214) was a 32-game starter for the Longhorns, leading the team in tackles (107) as a senior and finishing his career with five interceptions to go with four forced fumbles. Despite average long speed (4.63), Vaccaro displays outstanding range and man-coverage skills on tape, in addition to aggressiveness in run support. He jumped 38" vertically at the Combine and showed splendid short-area movement with a 6.78 three-cone drill. Vaccaro has an NFL-ready skill set because he can cover one-on-one and guard the deep half as a single-high safety. The Texas products' specialty is lining up against mismatch targets, whether it be quick slot receivers or larger tight ends. That will certainly help in a division which features Tony Gonzalez and Greg Olsen.

16. Bills - QB E.J. Manuel (FSU)
Manuel (6-foot-4 5/8, 237) inherited the Seminoles' quarterback reins from Christian Ponder for his final two seasons and completed 66.8 percent of his passes with a 41:18 TD-to-INT ratio. He rushed for eight more scores. Manuel is a great athlete with 4.62 speed and a 34-inch vertical, and could be a read-option weapon once he irons out his many kinks as a passer. Despite the lofty college completion rate, Manuel's accuracy is maddeningly scattershot beyond five yards and he seems virtually untrained in terms of pocket feel and footwork. He's a big project. The Bills can't expect a major contribution in year one. Expect Manuel to open the season behind Kevin Kolb. Despite his lofty draft status, Manuel figures to only see action if Kolb gets hurt or struggles. Ryan Nassib is officially falling.

17. Steelers - LB Jarvis Jones (Georgia)
It's one of the few picks to go according to plan in one of the wildest drafts in recent memory. Jones (6-foot-2, 245) led the nation in sacks (14.5) and tackles for loss (24.5) as a senior, and paced the SEC in forced fumbles (seven). He scared some evaluators with an early-career spinal condition and 4.92 forty time, but he's been cleared medically and his tape is too good to worry much about his straight-line long speed. Jones explodes off the ball and his motor is relentless. Although slightly undersized, Jones is a readymade 3-4 rush 'backer. He's an ideal replacement for James Harrison, and will be an immediate favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

18. 49ers - DB Eric Reid (LSU)
Reid (6-foot-1 1/4, 213) made 29 starts in the Tigers' secondary, recording 4.5 career tackles for loss and six interceptions. A straight-linish strong safety type, Reid displays stiff hips and takes too many poor tackling angles on film. He is a high-character prospect with great work ethic. Reid ran 4.53 in Indy with highly explosive jumps, reaching 40.5" in the vertical and 11-foot-2 in the broad. While Reid offers upside, he's going to struggle in one-on-one NFL coverage situations. He'll try to fill the shoes of first-team All-Pro Dashon Goldson, who signed with the Bucs in free agency.

19. Giants - T Justin Pugh (Syracuse)
Pugh (6-foot-4 1/2, 307) made 34 starts at Syracuse, mostly at left tackle. An athletic technician, Pugh is being projected to guard or even center by NFL teams due to stubby 32-inch arms. In March, NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah compared Pugh to "a better version of Andy Levitre." Levitre played left tackle at Oregon State and has grown into one of the NFL's top left guards. In 2012, Pugh permitted just a half-sack of Ryan Nassib and otherwise didn't allow a single hurry. The Giants could slot Pugh in at left guard ahead of Kevin Boothe or right tackle over David Diehl. They'll likely figure it out in training camp.

20. Bears - G Kyle Long (Oregon)
Long (6-foot-6 1/8, 313) is the son of Howie and brother of Chris. Kyle only started 11 games for the Ducks after playing baseball at Florida State and spending the 2010 and 2011 seasons at Saddleback Community College as a defensive and offensive lineman. Ideally suited to left guard, Long has relatively short arms (33 3/8") but is arguably the second most athletic interior offensive lineman in this draft, behind Jonathan Cooper. Long ran 4.94 at the Combine with a 1.68 ten-yard split and 28-inch vertical. Many suggested Long would be a second-round pick due to his inexperience at the position, but offensive linemen are in high demand during the first-round. Due to his natural athleticism and aggression, Long fits a variety of spots along the line.

21. Bengals - TE Tyler Eifert (Notre Dame)
It's an acknowledgement of disappointment in Jermaine Gresham, who has never lived up to his athletic billing coming out of college and was an absolute dog in the Bengals' playoff loss to Houston. Eifert (6-foot-5 1/2, 250) caught 140 passes for 1,840 yards (13.1 YPR) and 11 touchdowns across three seasons for the Irish, demonstrating terrific hands and elite high-pointing ability on contested throws. He was a dangerous intermediate seam-stretcher as a freshman and sophomore before facing more double teams as a junior and learning to win 50:50 balls amid tight coverage. Also a willing blocker, Eifert sewed up a first-round draft slot with a 4.68 forty at the Combine and a 35.5-inch vertical, which both ranked in the top five at his position. He drew pre-draft comparisons to Todd Heap. Unfortunately due to his landing spot, Eifert is unlikely to make much fantasy noise as a rookie.

22. Falcons - DB Desmond Trufant (Washington)
Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff wheels and deals with his former employee Les Snead, giving up more for the No. 22 pick than the Cowboys got for No. 18. Trufant fills one of Atlanta's biggest needs, and should slide in as an immediate starter opposite LCB Asante Samuel. Trufant (5-foot-11 5/8, 190) started 46 games for the Huskies, notching six picks. Longtime Seahawks CB Marcus' younger brother, Desmond ran 4.38 at the Combine with a 1.47 ten-yard split and 37.5-inch vertical. Trufant has exceptional feet, fluidity and the speed to stay in the receiver's hip pocket, but lacks physicality ala Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

23. Vikings - DL Sharrif Floyd (Florida)
Commonly mocked to the Raiders at No. 3 overall, Floyd suffered the biggest free fall of the night. A 6-foot-2 5/8, 297 classic three-technique interior rusher, Floyd finished his three-year Gators career with 26 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, three field goal blocks, and one forced fumble across 26 starts. Floyd ran 4.92 at the Combine with a 1.68 ten-yard split and 30-inch vertical. Deemed "without question" this draft's No. 1 player on tape by NFL Films guru Greg Cosell, Floyd is an up-field penetrator in the mold of Warren Sapp. He'll be a threat for 6-8 sacks as a rookie while serving as 32-year-old Kevin Williams' eventual successor.

24. Colts - DL Bjoern Werner (Florida)
Werner (6-foot-3 1/4, 266) earned 2012 ACC Defensive Player of the Year by leading the 'Noles in tackles for loss (18) and sacks (13), also batting down eight passes. Werner is not the explosive edge rusher his stats suggest, and ran 4.83 at the Combine with a 9-foot-3 broad jump. Hyped as a top-five pick early in the draft process, Werner's tape and motor were inconsistent upon further review. He's unlikely to be a double-digit sack threat in the pros. We don't particularly like the fit in the 3-4 for Werner, but he did go through outside 'backer drills at the Combine and Pro Day. He'll rush the passer opposite Robert Mathis.

25. Vikings - DB Xavier Rhodes (FSU)
Rhodes (6-foot-1 1/2, 210) is a physical, long-armed (33 3/4") press corner who ran 4.43 at the Combine with a tremendous 40.5-inch vertical and 11-foot broad jump. A 38-game starter for the 'Noles, Rhodes tallied eight career INTs and seven tackles for loss. Rhodes displays loose hips, quick feet, ample recovery speed, and standout ball skills on tape. Consistency and technique were sometimes issues, but Rhodes' overall game is reminiscent of Aqib Talib. The former receiver is very aggressive and could start opposite Josh Robinson or Chris Cook in 2013.

26. Packers - DL Datone Jones (UCLA)
They finally replace Cullen Jenkins. Jones (6-foot-3 7/8, 283) totaled 13.5 career sacks, 36.5 tackles for loss, and four forced fumbles as the lynchpin of UCLA's defense, playing both 3-4 end and three-technique tackle. Jones has short arms (32 3/4") not unlike 2012 first-rounder Melvin Ingram, but plays with aggression and active hands. Jones showed short-area explosion at the Combine with a 1.63 ten-yard split, also repping 225 pounds 29 times. Greg Cosell has compared Jones to a smaller Richard Seymour. He's going to be primarily an inside pass rusher for a Green Bay team looking to get bigger and more physical on defense.

27. Texans - WR DeAndre Hopkins (Clemson)
After 10 years, the Texans finally have a legitimate No. 2 receiver opposite Andre Johnson. Hopkins (6-foot-1, 214) overtook ballyhooed sophomore Sammy Watkins to be Tajh Boyd's top target in Clemson's 2012 offense, pacing the Tigers in receptions (82), yards (1,405) and scores (18). He averaged 17.1 yards per catch. Although he lacks elite speed (4.57 forty), Hopkins is a pro-ready route runner with big (10"), reliable hands. His playing style is (very) similar to Roddy White's. Hopkins is a classic "Z" receiver who should flourish on the strong side of the formation and in the slot.

28. Broncos - DL Sylvester Williams (UNC)
Williams (6-foot-2 5/8, 313) transferred from JUCO to play two years with the Tar Heels, starting all 25 games of his career. He logged 13.5 tackles for loss and six sacks as a senior. Described as a "hard hat, lunch-pail guy" by NFL.com's Bucky Brooks, Williams shows great burst off the line on tape. He ran a 5.03 forty at the Combine with a 1.72 ten-yard split and 30 reps on the bench. Williams will slide right in as a rotational tackle along with Kevin Vickerson and Terrance Knighton. It's a nice value pick at a position of need for the Broncos.

29. Vikings - WR Cordarrelle Patterson (Tennessee)
Patterson (6-foot-1 7/8, 216) spent just one season at Division I after a JUCO transfer, catching 46 balls for 778 yards (16.9 YPR) and five scores. Used in the backfield and on special teams, Patterson set Tennessee's single-season record for all-purpose yards (1,858), adding three touchdowns as a ball carrier and two on returns. Patterson is an athletic freak with insane after-catch elusiveness, but he's still learning to run routes with confidence and precision. At the Combine, Patterson ran a 4.42 forty with a 37-inch vertical and 10-foot-8 broad jump. Patterson is the explosive receiver the Vikings badly needed after trading away Percy Harvin. He'll likely slide in as the starter opposite Greg Jennings, ahead of Jerome Simpson.

30. Rams - LB Alec Ogletree (Georgia)
Ogletree (6-foot-2 1/2, 242) is a long-armed (33 1/2"), highly athletic converted safety who racked up 20 career tackles for loss, six sacks, and four forced fumbles as a 22-game college starter. Unfortunately, he's a trainwreck off the field, getting arrested for theft in 2010 and DUI this past February. On it, Ogletree is not an especially physical player but possesses terrific range, both sideline to sideline in the run game and as a cover 'backer versus tight ends and slot receivers. He ran 4.7-flat at the Combine with a 1.6 ten-yard split and did 20 reps on the bench. Some were projecting him as an inside linebacker, but Ogletree does his best work chasing from the weak side and should step into that role for the Rams, along with staying on the field in passing situations.

31. Cowboys - C Travis Frederick (Wisconsin)
Frederick (6-foot-3 5/8, 312) entered the draft following his redshirt junior season after making 31 starts for the Badgers, 13 at left guard and 18 at center. He played center in 2012. Despite sub-par athleticism, Frederick is a heady (34 Wonderlic score), powerful phone-booth blocker whom ex-Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema deemed "pound for pound one of the strongest (players) I've ever coached." Assuming C Phil Costa's health holds up, we would anticipate Frederick starting at right guard as a rookie.

32. Ravens - DB Matt Elam (Florida)
The final pick of the first round should start opposite Michael Huff after the Ravens moved on from Ed Reed and Bernard Pollard. Elam (5-foot-9 7/8, 208) made 26 starts for the Gators, logging 23.5 career tackles for loss, six picks and three forced fumbles. He ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at the Combine, and posted a 35.5-inch vertical leap. Elam offers top-notch ball skills and is a striker in the run game. He garnered pre-draft comparisons to Bob Sanders for his size and physicality. Elam covered slot receivers in Florida's nickel defense, but will struggle to match up with much taller NFL tight ends.

Source: http://www.rotoworld.com/slide/cfb/300/2013-NFL-Draft

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